If you happened to see the post I put up called “A Shutout,” you might have figured out that I’m putting together a pitch by pitch tracker of each Yankee game.
In order to preserve my sanity, and my soon to be marriage, I’m focusing on the Yankees from a pitching perspective this season. I want to see what’s working, what isn’t, and what interesting patterns might start to emerge over the course of the season.
The reason I decided to focus on pitching, was because the Yankees playoff hopes seem to rely heavily on the performance of a pair (at least) of young starters, a cranky old righty, a potentially ego bruised ace, and a cagey old lefty who lost his buddy this offseason.
Add to that the fact that the bullpen, outside of it’s automatic closer was untested, and the aforementioned automatic closer was another year older. I figured pitching would be where all the drama was this season, while the offense would hum along.
Of course that hasn’t been the case. I suspect the bats will warm up with the weather let’s just hope we can wait that long.
While we’re waiting, let me tell you my four hypotheses on why the offense has been so ….offensive.
1) The “They’re Just Not That Good” Hypothesis
Pecota, Zips, Chone and Cairo, would all seem to disagree with this hypothesis, but consider the following:
Damon: Put up a .264 EQA last season, and he’s a year older.
Jeter: Gimpy so far this year, and his slugging has been trending downward for the last 3 seasons. Also, a year older.
Abreu: The one guy I would expect more from this year.
Rodriguez: After a historic season last year, he’ll probably not be as good this year, but he’ll still be a bright spot.
Posada: How long can a 36 year old catcher perform at the level he performed at last season? Apparently not that long.
Giambi: Complete and total unknown. He could be a great happy surprise, he could also be a disaster, or a non factor. I can’t rule out any of the three, and I can’t come to a conclusion as to which I think is most likely. Actually, I can, based on recent history, I doubt Giambi is a significant contributor to the 2008 offense.
Cano: A traditional slow starter, and also overrated with regard to his potential in my opinion.
Matsui: Streaky as shit. I don’t know exactly how you’re supposed to hit a baseball when you’re running away from homeplate on every swing, but then again he’s Japanese and married to a cartoon lady and I’m not, so what the fuck do I know?
Cabrera: A .250 EQA last season. I don’t see what a lot of people see in this guy offensively. He’s a nice 9 hitter, but if Jeter, Giambi, and Posada miss significant chunks of time, or see their production significantly fall off, you can’t afford to have a “nice 9 hitter,” if you want to compete in the AL East.
As I said, all the projection systems would seem to disagree with me, and I don’t know that I believe that the offense is as potentially bad as it appears from reading what I wrote above, but the potential exists that this isn’t a fluke.
The “They’re Old and it’s Cold” Hypothesis
Damon: 34 Years old
Jeter: 33
Abreu: 34
Rodriguez: 32
Posada: 36
Giambi: 37
Cano: 25
Matsui: 33
Cabrera: 23
7 of the 9 hitters are on the wrong side of thirty. Anyone who thinks that 30+ year old bodies are as resillient as 20 something year old bodies, has never been 30+. The cold makes your muscles stiff, your joints stiff, your hands hurt. I would not be surprised to see data someday that shows that hitters over 30 are less good when the air temprature is below 50.
The “Small Sample Size” Hypothesis
This one basically says, “Hey Chester, it’s only been nine games. We’re just witnessing fluky randomness rearing it’s ugly head. Take a nap for a month, and when you wake up, everything will be all better.”
It seems to be the most likely explanation, but it’s not really fun, so let’s ignore it.
The “The League Has Figured Them Out” Hypothesis
Remember the 2004 ALCS, you know, when the Red Sox crawled out of their coffin, brused the dirt off themselves and whipped our asses in humiliating fashion? Well, I do.
The thing I saw the Red Sox do in that series, was start to exploit the Yankees patient approach. They consistently got ahead in counts, and never threw fastballs in “fastball counts.” In the ensuing years, I’ve seen other teams start to do the same thing in the playoffs. Maybe the rest of the league figured it out. Maybe a combination of that, plus the fact that the bulk of our lineup is in the decline phase of it’s usefulness is conspiring to bury the Yankees annual flirtation with 1000 runs.
What do you think?
Posted by schteeve
