Conservatism, it’s not just for Ron Paul anymore.

Will Carrol pinch hit at the LoHud blog the other day, which spurred a lot of talk over at Bronx Banter like this:

“I think what Verducci and Carroll are trying to do is cram common sense into a rule. We all know that pitchers in general are fragile, and younger ones are even more so. As a result, they need to be handled conservatively and monitored closely. I don’t think it means they need to be conformed to an innings model.

There are lots of example of pitchers who have defied the 30 IP rule, and lots of others who have comformed to it. What I do think is evident is that minor league innings need to be weighed, if not fully, then pretty close. Otherwise, there would be a whole host of pitchers who’d fail the test. Guys like Peavy, Cain, Maddux, Buerhle, Zambrano, Kazmir and Sabathia are all active pitchers who either debuted with huge workloads or experience significant major league spikes early in their careers.” — Posted by Williamnyy23 at Bronx Banter
 

Now, I’m by no means a Will Carrol fanboi (I choose the punk spelling but pronounce it Frenchily *fan-bwaa*), but I will say that he’s an authority on this subject, and if he tells me that Phil Hughes is swimming in shark infested waters after 60 IP, I cap Phil at 50 or pull the trigger on the Santana deal.

There’s no point holding on to Hughes if you’re just going to roll the dice with his arm.

Also, citing examples of guys who are the exception to the rule, is like the wishfulest of wishful thinking being passed off as analysis.

If the Triumverate needs three seasons before carrying a full time starter role, you have to err on the side of caution or sell high.

I’ve been in favor of passing on Santana, and I still am, but not if you’re going to be reckless with Hughes.